MANILA/BEIJING – China and the Philippines have agreed to restore trust and build confidence in the South China Sea, two weeks after a skirmish near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal left a Filipino soldier injured and raised the risk of a serious conflict.
The agreement came after officials from both sides held “frank and constructive” talks on the South China Sea in Manila on July 2. The meeting was headed by Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong and his Philippine counterpart Theresa Lazaro.
Maritime tensions have run high in the past year, with both sides clashing repeatedly over the Philippines’ resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, where an ageing warship called the BRP Sierra Madre has been grounded since 1999 to serve as Manila’s remote military outpost.
The latest escalation came in a face-off between Chinese coast guard and Philippine naval vessels on June 17.
Using knives and spears, Chinese personnel boarded the Philippine Navy dinghies and confiscated firearms – the first intervention since new Chinese rules came into force on June 15 that authorise China’s coast guard to detain foreigners who trespass into waters it proclaims as its own.
On July 2, the Philippines said that “both sides recognised that there is a need to restore trust, rebuild confidence and create conditions conducive to productive dialogue and interaction”.
“The two sides discussed their respective positions on Ayungin Shoal and affirmed their commitment to de-escalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions,” said the Philippine statement, which added that “significant differences remain”. Ayungin is the local name for the Second Thomas Shoal.
The July 2 talks, called the Ninth Meeting of the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea, is a dialogue that began in 2017. Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed with then Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to establish this dialogue in 2016. The last meeting was held in Shanghai on Jan 17, 2024.
Both sides agreed to continue discussions on maritime cooperation, such as between their coast guards, and an academic forum among scientists and academics on marine scientific and technological cooperation.
They also agreed to hold the 10th meeting of the bilateral talks in China, although no specific date was mentioned.
While analysts welcomed the positive signals for peace, there was little sign that either side was ready to back down on its sovereignty claims.
Ms Lazaro said that her country would be “relentless in protecting its interests and upholding the sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the West Philippine Sea”.
In its statement about the meeting, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the country reiterated its sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including the Ren’ai Jiao, referring to the Chinese names for the Spratly Islands and Second Thomas Shoal, respectively.
China urged the Philippines to “immediately stop its maritime infringement and provocative acts”, and work with China to manage the situation in the Ren’ai Jiao to ease the situation, added the statement.
Dr Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in China, however, saw it as a positive sign that the dialogue has continued at the vice-foreign minister level.
“As long as both sides keep talking, there is a chance to avoid conflict and reduce tensions,” he told The Straits Times, noting that they had agreed on a 10th meeting, which would sustain the positive momentum of talks.
“This signals there is mutual intention to set aside more contentious claims for now, and use this dialogue mechanism to manage differences and prevent accidents from happening.”
Dr Ding added that a possible point of friction would be whether the Philippines still intends to transport construction materials to reinforce the Sierra Madre warship, and what measures China will take in response. “That is probably the core issue.”
Whether the talks will have practical effects on calming tensions at sea, Dr Ding said he is “cautiously optimistic”; however, the Philippines might yet renege on mutual agreements, or the US might further interfere in the situation.
Beijing has claimed that Mr Duterte made a “gentleman’s agreement” with China at the end of 2021 that Manila would not make repairs to the Sierra Madre warship. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s administration has said there are no documents or records to prove such an agreement existed.
The Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands lies in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, but also falls within China’s expansive nine-dash line, which it says forms a historical basis for its claims to most of the South China Sea.
Dr Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore welcomed the dialogue, telling ST that it is in line with the Philippines’ strategy of being transparent in dealing with China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour in the disputed sea.
He said the talks also benefit Beijing “because they do not want to be seen as the bad guy”.
But he was sceptical about whether the communication mechanism would be effective in settling the dispute in the long run.
“My question is: How do you actually lower tensions and manage the situation if both sides, based on the statement, clearly still have differences?
“It seems to imply that the Chinese are not likely going to roll back on patrolling the area. On the Philippines’ side, the routine resupply mission will continue,” said Dr Koh.- Straits Times
